Viewing archive of Sunday, 12 December 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Dec 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 347 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Dec 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels today. Region
711 (N13W47) underwent growth in sunspot area and was responsible
for multiple low level B-class flares during the period. This region
was the only visible sunspot group on the disk today. No new
regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. The
elevated conditions are believed to be the result of the long
duration C2 flare that occurred on 8 December. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated
active conditions may be possible on 13 December in response to the
potential for southward Bz oscillations and a slightly elevated
solar wind.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Dec to 15 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Dec 091 Predicted 13 Dec-15 Dec 090/090/090 90 Day Mean 12 Dec 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Dec 011/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Dec 020/043 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Dec-15 Dec 010/015-005/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Dec to 15 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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