Viewing archive of Tuesday, 7 December 2004

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Dec 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 342 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Dec 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. A period of minor storm conditions did occur at high latitudes between 07/0300 and 0600Z and is believed to be in response to a waning coronal hole. Solar wind velocity has been at or near 500 km/s throughout most of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period with isolated active conditions possible on the first day (8 Dec) as the geoeffective coronal hole rotates off the solar west limb. The remainder of the period should return to quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Dec to 10 Dec
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 Dec 090
  Predicted   08 Dec-10 Dec  090/095/095
  90 Day Mean        07 Dec 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 06 Dec  011/019
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 07 Dec  009/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 08 Dec-10 Dec  008/015-008/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Dec to 10 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%25%20%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%

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