Viewing archive of Monday, 6 December 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Dec 06 2320 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 341 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Dec 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No new regions were
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Active levels were caused
by sustained periods of southward Bz. Solar wind speed at ACE has
increased from approximately 400 km/s to 460 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active conditions possible.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Dec to 09 Dec
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Dec 093 Predicted 07 Dec-09 Dec 090/090/090 90 Day Mean 06 Dec 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Dec 007/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Dec 012/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Dec-09 Dec 008/010-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Dec to 09 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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