Viewing archive of Monday, 29 November 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Nov 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 334 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Nov 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity was low. There was one C-class flare
today, a C3/Sf at 0143 UTC from Region 707 (S14E02). There are
currently three spotted regions on the disk and they are all
essentially unchanged from yesterday.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next three days (30 November - 2 December).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active. Solar wind speed,
temperature, and total interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) continued
to be enhanced after yesterday's solar sector boundary crossing. The
Z-component of the IMF has been fluctuating northwards and
southwards with values typically between -7 nT to +7 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next three days (29
November - 2 December) due to persistence from currently enhanced
solar wind and the onset of effects from a favorably positioned
coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Nov to 02 Dec
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Nov 111 Predicted 30 Nov-02 Dec 110/110/115 90 Day Mean 29 Nov 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Nov 016/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Nov 016/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Nov-02 Dec 015/020-015/020-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Nov to 02 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
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