Viewing archive of Sunday, 28 November 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Nov 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 333 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Nov 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. All four spotted regions on the disk were quiet and stable. Region 708 (N10E56) is showing slow growth.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low for the next three days (29 November - 01 December).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled. There was a period of minor storm level activity from 0600-0900 UTC due to a substorm that appeared to be triggered by a northward turning of the IMF after a sustained interval of weakly southward orientation. Solar wind data show the onset of a solar sector boundary from positive to negative orientation at about 1500 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes attained high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled with a chance for some isolated active periods during the next three days (29 November - 01 December). The influence of a favorably positioned coronal hole are expected to begin late on 01 December.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Nov to 01 Dec
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 Nov 113
  Predicted   29 Nov-01 Dec  110/110/110
  90 Day Mean        28 Nov 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 27 Nov  010/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 Nov  012/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 29 Nov-01 Dec  010/010-010/010-012/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Nov to 01 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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