Viewing archive of Saturday, 27 November 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Nov 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 332 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Nov 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity was low. There were two C-class flares
during the past 24 hours, a C2 at 0204 UTC from Region 707 (S16E27)
and a C1.5/Sf at 0516 UTC from Region 706 (S07E31). Of the four
spotted regions on the disk, only Region 707 is growing. The rate of
growth in 707 is slow, but the group has some magnetic mixing and is
a beta-gamma magnetic class.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next 24 hours (through 28
November) and is expected to be quiet to unsettled for 29-30
November.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Nov to 30 Nov
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Nov 110 Predicted 28 Nov-30 Nov 110/110/110 90 Day Mean 27 Nov 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Nov 016/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Nov 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Nov-30 Nov 005/005-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Nov to 30 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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