Viewing archive of Friday, 26 November 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Nov 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 331 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Nov 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. A long duration B4
event was observed at 25/2321 UTC. Analysis of image data does not
reveal the apparent optical flare associated with this event.
Region 707 (S16E42) has grown in both white light coverage and
sunspot count and is currently a beta-gamma magnetic configuration.
A new region was numbered today as Region 708 (N08E81), which is
likely the return of old Region 696 (N09,L=026). This region
produced numerous events during its last rotation before exiting the
west limb on 12 November, including two X-class flares.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Several regions on the disk are capable of producing
C-class events.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Solar wind
speeds at ACE has shown a steady decline in the past 24 hours and is
currently around 420 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Nov to 29 Nov
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Nov 111 Predicted 27 Nov-29 Nov 115/115/115 90 Day Mean 26 Nov 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Nov 019/020 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Nov 012/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Nov-29 Nov 008/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Nov to 29 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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