Viewing archive of Wednesday, 24 November 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Nov 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 329 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Nov 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity has been low. New Regions 706 (S07E69)
and 707 (S15E68) were numbered today. These regions are likely the
return of old Region 698 (S09,L=062) and 693 (S17,L=074)
respectively.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
An isolated M-class event is possible with the emergence of the two
new regions on the southeast solar disk.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled conditions. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high
levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active
conditions are possible due to the effects of a recurrent coronal
hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Nov to 27 Nov
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Nov 107 Predicted 25 Nov-27 Nov 120/125/130 90 Day Mean 24 Nov 106
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Nov 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Nov 005/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Nov-27 Nov 008/012-010/015-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Nov to 27 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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