Viewing archive of Tuesday, 23 November 2004

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Nov 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 328 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Nov 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Two C-class events were observed today. Both of these events were visible in the GOES-12 SXI images approaching the east solar limb. A new region was numbered today as Region 705 (S04W64).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. An isolated M-class event is possible with the return of Region 693 (S17,L=074), 698 (S09,L=062), and 696 (N08,L=026). These regions are due to return to the visible disk between 23-26 November.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods are possible on 25-26 November due to the influence of a recurrent coronal hole high speed solar wind stream.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Nov to 26 Nov
Class M15%15%15%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Nov 107
  Predicted   24 Nov-26 Nov  115/120/125
  90 Day Mean        23 Nov 106
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Nov  006/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Nov  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 Nov-26 Nov  005/008-008/010-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Nov to 26 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%15%20%
Minor storm01%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%25%
Minor storm05%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%

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