Viewing archive of Monday, 22 November 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Nov 22 2210 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 327 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Nov 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity was low. A long duration event C1.1 flare occurred at 22/0757. SXI showed the primary contributions to the event from regions on the east and west limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Isolated active periods were observed at mid latitudes between 0600 to 0900 UTC, and high latitudes between 0300 to 0900 UTC. Solar wind speed has declined from 600 km/s to 500 km/s during this reporting period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. On 25 November, there is a possibility of active periods due to the effects of a coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Nov to 25 Nov
Class M10%10%10%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Nov 106
  Predicted   23 Nov-25 Nov  110/115/115
  90 Day Mean        22 Nov 106
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Nov  009/016
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Nov  008/011
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Nov-25 Nov  004/008-004/008-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Nov to 25 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%25%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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