Viewing archive of Sunday, 21 November 2004

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Nov 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 326 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Nov 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. A Region on the East limb at S16 produced a B5.4 flare at 21/1656 UTC. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. Elevated levels were due to the lingering presence of a high speed coronal hole stream. At approximately 21/0000 UTC, solar wind speed increased to an estimated 640 km/s and has gradually declined to 590 km/s as of the end of the summary period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with the possibility of isolated active periods.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Nov to 24 Nov
Class M05%10%10%
Class X01%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 Nov 101
  Predicted   22 Nov-24 Nov  100/105/110
  90 Day Mean        21 Nov 106
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 Nov  012/018
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 Nov  011/018
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 22 Nov-24 Nov  008/015-004/010-004/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Nov to 24 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%15%15%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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