Viewing archive of Tuesday, 16 November 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Nov 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 321 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Nov 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels today. Region 700 (N04W67) was limited to the production of lesser B and C-class flares this period, the largest was a C1.4/Sf event that occurred at 16/0013Z. Sunspot area continues to grow as dominant penumbral spots in both polarities increase in size. The beta-gamma magnetic structure remains intact. A CME was observed by SOHO/LASCO imagery on the northeast solar limb which appears to have been from a back-sided source region. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit continues settling to background levels from the event that ended on 13 November.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled throughout the period.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Nov to 19 Nov
Class M10%10%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Nov 108
  Predicted   17 Nov-19 Nov  115/120/125
  90 Day Mean        16 Nov 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Nov  002/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Nov  005/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Nov-19 Nov  004/008-004/008-002/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Nov to 19 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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