Viewing archive of Thursday, 11 November 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Nov 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 316 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Nov 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 696 (N08W76) produced
isolated minor C-class activity. This region was the source of
significant flare and geomagnetic activity over the past week, but
has decayed considerably over the past 36 hours. A weak delta
configuration is still evident in this region as it approaches the
west limb. The rest of the visible disk was very quiet; however, new
Regions 700 (N04W02) and 701 (S16E70) emerged today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Isolated M-class flares are still possible from Region
696 before it rotates around the west limb on 13 November. Low solar
activity levels are expected on 14 November.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. The
most disturbed periods followed a prolonged period of southward Bz
between 11/03 - 07Z. Solar wind speed was elevated between 550 and
650 km/s. A 12 nT sudden impulse was observed at the geomagnetic
field at 11/1714Z. Solar wind plasma and magnetic field measurements
at ACE indicate weak transient flow, likely from the CME activity on
09 - 10 November. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at
07/1910Z remains in progress (currently ranging from 50 - 100 pfu).
The maximum so far was 495 pfu at 08/0115Z. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to severe storm levels. Further
transient material from the CME activity on 09 - 10 November may
produce active to major storm periods on 12 November, and isolated
severe conditions are possible at high latitudes. A return to a more
stable geomagnetic field is expected on 13 an 14 November.
Occasional active periods are expected on the 13th with
predominantly quiet to unsettled levels on the 14th. The greater
than 10 MeV proton event that has been in progress since 07 November
is expected to end by 13 November.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Nov to 14 Nov
| Class M | 35% | 20% | 10% |
| Class X | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Proton | 99% | 15% | 05% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Nov 095 Predicted 12 Nov-14 Nov 090/085/085 90 Day Mean 11 Nov 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Nov 101/181 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Nov 020/030 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Nov-14 Nov 050/100-020/030-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Nov to 14 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 50% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 40% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 10% | 01% |
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