Viewing archive of Monday, 25 October 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Oct 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 299 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Oct 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity was low. A C6.8 flare was observed from
Region 687 (N12E03) at 25/1031 UTC. Region 687 also produced
several other low level C-class flares. Region 691 (N15E48)
produced a C4.2 at 25/0252 UTC and maintains a Beta-Gamma-Delta
magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Isolated M-class flares from Region 687 are expected.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an active period on
25 October between 0900 and 1200 UTC. The active period was most
likely due to a geoeffective coronal hole. ACE data show solar wind
speed has remained around 500 km/s, however the total interplanetary
magnetic field strength has decreased from approximately 10 nT to 4
nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with possible isolated active
conditions on 26 October. On 27 and 28 October, quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Oct to 28 Oct
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Oct 140 Predicted 26 Oct-28 Oct 140/135/135 90 Day Mean 25 Oct 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Oct 006/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Oct 010/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Oct-28 Oct 010/012-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Oct to 28 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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