Viewing archive of Wednesday, 20 October 2004

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Oct 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 294 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Oct 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region 687 (N10E65) produced the largest flare of the period, an M2 x-ray flare that occurred at 20/1051Z. A CME was observed in LASCO imagery which does not appear to be Earth directed. This region remains too close to the eastern limb to fully discern magnetic complexity, although it does appear to contain a compact cluster of sunspots exhibiting both polarities. Region 682 (S13W33) produced multiple low level flares today, the largest was a C4/Sf which occurred at 20/0213Z. This region underwent moderate growth today. A beta-gamma magnetic structure is now evident and the sunspot area showed a modest increase during the period. Region 688 (S08W48) showed moderate growth over the period and was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 682 and 687 both have a fair potential for the production of isolated M-class flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Active levels occurred in response to the sustained southward movement of the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Oct to 23 Oct
Class M50%50%50%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Oct 111
  Predicted   21 Oct-23 Oct  115/120/125
  90 Day Mean        20 Oct 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Oct  003/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Oct  006/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 Oct-23 Oct  005/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Oct to 23 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

<< Go to daily overview page

Latest news

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

100%

Space weather facts

Last X-flare:2017/09/10X8.2
Last M-flare:2017/10/20M1.0
Last geomagnetic storm:2019/10/26Kp5 (G1)
Number of spotless days in 2019:267
Current stretch spotless days:40

This day in history*

Solar flares
12001M5.6
22001M4.8
32001M3.0
42000M1.3
52001C9.3
ApG
1200428G1
2200627G1
3200325G1
4201418
5199415
*since 1994

Social networks