Viewing archive of Thursday, 14 October 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Oct 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 288 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Oct 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Region 682 (S13E50) produced a C1.0 at 13/2206Z and a C1.7 at 14/0329Z. Region 682 grew to 245 millionths in white light, and maintained a beta magnetic configuration. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. Region 682 may produce C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. Solar wind speed at ACE continued a steady increase and ended the period at 540 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on 15 October, from the residual effects of the coronal hole high speed solar wind stream. Activity should subside to quiet to unsettled levels on 16-17 October.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Oct to 17 Oct
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Oct 091
  Predicted   15 Oct-17 Oct  090/090/090
  90 Day Mean        14 Oct 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Oct  017/035
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Oct  020/030
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct  012/015-010/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Oct to 17 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%30%30%
Minor storm20%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%40%40%
Minor storm25%20%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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