Viewing archive of Wednesday, 13 October 2004

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Oct 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 287 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Oct 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity has been very low. New Region 682 (S13E64) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Region 682 may produce isolated C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels. Minor geomagnetic storms early in the period may have been caused by periods of consistently southward Bz followed by northward turning. Real-time solar wind data recorded at ACE are suggestive of the arrival of a co-rotating interaction region at about 0100 UTC, and steady increase in solar wind speed starting at about 0800 UTC, indicating the beginning of high speed solar wind stream from a geoeffective coronal hole. Solar wind speed at the end of the period was at 500 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on 14 October from the residual effects of coronal hole high speed solar wind stream. On 15-16 October, geomagnetic activity should subside to quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Oct to 16 Oct
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Oct 087
  Predicted   14 Oct-16 Oct  090/090/090
  90 Day Mean        13 Oct 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Oct  007/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Oct  030/035
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct  015/020-012/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Oct to 16 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%35%30%
Minor storm20%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%40%40%
Minor storm35%25%20%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%

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