Viewing archive of Wednesday, 13 October 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Oct 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 287 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Oct 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. New Region 682
(S13E64) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Region 682 may produce isolated C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels.
Minor geomagnetic storms early in the period may have been caused by
periods of consistently southward Bz followed by northward turning.
Real-time solar wind data recorded at ACE are suggestive of the
arrival of a co-rotating interaction region at about 0100 UTC, and
steady increase in solar wind speed starting at about 0800 UTC,
indicating the beginning of high speed solar wind stream from a
geoeffective coronal hole. Solar wind speed at the end of the
period was at 500 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active on 14 October from the residual
effects of coronal hole high speed solar wind stream. On 15-16
October, geomagnetic activity should subside to quiet to unsettled
levels.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Oct to 16 Oct
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Oct 087 Predicted 14 Oct-16 Oct 090/090/090 90 Day Mean 13 Oct 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Oct 007/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Oct 030/035 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct 015/020-012/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Oct to 16 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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