Viewing archive of Monday, 4 October 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Oct 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 278 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Oct 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar Activity was low. A C2.6 flare occurred at
04/1325 UTC from a region on the east limb at S11. A coronal mass
ejection was associated with this event.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a possibility for C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Oct to 07 Oct
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Oct 091 Predicted 05 Oct-07 Oct 095/100/105 90 Day Mean 04 Oct 112
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Oct 007/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Oct 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Oct-07 Oct 008/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Oct to 07 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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