Viewing archive of Wednesday, 22 September 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Sep 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 266 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Sep 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity was low. A C3.2 flare occurred from
Region 673 (S13W17) at 22/0920Z. Region 672 (N04, L=351) has
rotated around the west limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with minor storming
levels from 1200Z to 1500Z. Active levels were observed from 1500Z
to 1800Z. The minor storm levels were attributed to a CME from a
M-class flare on 19 September. Solar wind speed increased to
approximately 530 km/s from 1850Z to 2045Z. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with an isolated active period
possible.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Sep to 25 Sep
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Sep 091 Predicted 23 Sep-25 Sep 090/090/090 90 Day Mean 22 Sep 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Sep 006/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Sep 016/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Sep-25 Sep 008/015-005/010-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Sep to 25 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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