Viewing archive of Wednesday, 22 September 2004

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Sep 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 266 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Sep 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity was low. A C3.2 flare occurred from Region 673 (S13W17) at 22/0920Z. Region 672 (N04, L=351) has rotated around the west limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with minor storming levels from 1200Z to 1500Z. Active levels were observed from 1500Z to 1800Z. The minor storm levels were attributed to a CME from a M-class flare on 19 September. Solar wind speed increased to approximately 530 km/s from 1850Z to 2045Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with an isolated active period possible.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Sep to 25 Sep
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton05%05%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Sep 091
  Predicted   23 Sep-25 Sep  090/090/090
  90 Day Mean        22 Sep 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Sep  006/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Sep  016/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Sep-25 Sep  008/015-005/010-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Sep to 25 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%25%25%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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