Viewing archive of Friday, 10 September 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Sep 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 254 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Sep 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels today. Region 672
(N05E60) produced multiple C-class flares today, the largest was a
C6 x-ray flare that occurred at 10/1613Z. Region 671 (S09W81) was
quiescent today and is approaching the western solar limb. Region
669 (S06W78) was also quiet today and exhibited slight growth in the
intermediate cluster of spots during the period. No new regions
were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
mostly low levels with a chance for an isolated M-class flare,
particularly from Region 672.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Sep to 13 Sep
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Sep 130 Predicted 11 Sep-13 Sep 120/125/125 90 Day Mean 10 Sep 112
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Sep 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Sep 004/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Sep-13 Sep 005/008-008/008-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Sep to 13 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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