Viewing archive of Thursday, 9 September 2004

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Sep 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 253 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Sep 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Newly numbered Region 672 (N05E73) produced two C class flares, a C1.2 at 2222 UTC, and a long duration C3.2, with a maximum at 0601 UTC. A limb CME was associated with the C3.2 event, but was not Earth directed. Region 671 (S09W68) produced a B9.3 flare at 1800 UTC, and continues to grow.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be mostly low with a chance for an isolated M class flare, particularly from Region 672.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (10-12 September).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Sep to 12 Sep
Class M20%20%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Sep 131
  Predicted   10 Sep-12 Sep  135/140/140
  90 Day Mean        09 Sep 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Sep  004/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Sep  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Sep-12 Sep  005/005-005/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Sep to 12 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%25%
Minor storm10%10%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%30%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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