Viewing archive of Tuesday, 7 September 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Sep 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 251 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Sep 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity was low. A C1.1 flare occurred at 0738
UTC from Region 669 (S06E06). A long duration C2.8 flare occurred
with a maximum at 1529 UTC. The source was observed in SXI on the
East limb at N04, apparently associated with a region behind the
visible disk. A backsided partial halo CME was associated with this
flare. Region 671 (S11W42) has grown in area but has not produced
any flares in the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for isolated M-Class flares. Background levels
are expected to gradually increase due to a region rotating onto the
visible disk.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. Solar wind
data has indicated the presence of a coronal hole stream with
velocities ranging from 410-470 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled for the next three days (08-10
September). There is a slight chance of some persistent active
levels during the next 24 hours.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Sep to 10 Sep
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Sep 119 Predicted 08 Sep-10 Sep 125/130/135 90 Day Mean 07 Sep 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Sep 009/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Sep 016/017 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Sep-10 Sep 010/010-008/010-006/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Sep to 10 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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