Viewing archive of Tuesday, 7 September 2004

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Sep 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 251 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Sep 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

Solar activity was low. A C1.1 flare occurred at 0738 UTC from Region 669 (S06E06). A long duration C2.8 flare occurred with a maximum at 1529 UTC. The source was observed in SXI on the East limb at N04, apparently associated with a region behind the visible disk. A backsided partial halo CME was associated with this flare. Region 671 (S11W42) has grown in area but has not produced any flares in the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for isolated M-Class flares. Background levels are expected to gradually increase due to a region rotating onto the visible disk.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. Solar wind data has indicated the presence of a coronal hole stream with velocities ranging from 410-470 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled for the next three days (08-10 September). There is a slight chance of some persistent active levels during the next 24 hours.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Sep to 10 Sep
Class M 15%15%15%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 Sep 119
  Predicted    08 Sep-10 Sep  125/130/135
  90 Day Mean        07 Sep 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 06 Sep  009/014
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 07 Sep  016/017
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 08 Sep-10 Sep  010/010-008/010-006/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Sep to 10 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%15%
Minor storm 15%10%10%
Major-severe storm 05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%25%
Minor storm 20%15%10%
Major-severe storm 05%05%05%

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