Viewing archive of Thursday, 26 August 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Aug 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 239 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Aug 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity remained at low levels today. Region
663 (N10W14) produced the largest flare during the period, a C1
x-ray flare that occurred at 26/0219Z. No significant changes were
observed in the two visible spotted Regions 663 and 664 (S11W42) in
magnetic complexity or spot area during the period. Spray was
observed at N01W90 from 26/0034Z to 26/0103Z and is believed to be
from Region 661 (N06, L=348) which rotated off the solar west limb
today. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels today.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels today. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Aug to 29 Aug
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Aug 098 Predicted 27 Aug-29 Aug 095/095/090 90 Day Mean 26 Aug 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Aug 003/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Aug 004/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Aug-29 Aug 006/008-006/008-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Aug to 29 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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