Viewing archive of Monday, 23 August 2004

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Aug 23 2210 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 236 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Aug 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. B-class flares were observed in Regions 661 (N07W60), 663 (N11E26), and 664 (S11W03). Regions 661 and 664 are simple beta groups that exhibited little change over the past 24 hours. Region 663, in a beta-gamma configuration, is more complex, but has decayed slightly this period. Remaining active regions were stable or in decay.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. There is a small chance for a C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The IMF Bz was predominantly southward; however, solar wind speed has declined to near 400 km/s . The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active periods are possible at high latitudes.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Aug to 26 Aug
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Aug 110
  Predicted   24 Aug-26 Aug  110/105/095
  90 Day Mean        23 Aug 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Aug  008/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Aug  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 Aug-26 Aug  010/015-008/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Aug to 26 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%20%20%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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