Viewing archive of Monday, 23 August 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Aug 23 2210 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 236 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Aug 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity was very low. B-class flares were
observed in Regions 661 (N07W60), 663 (N11E26), and 664 (S11W03).
Regions 661 and 664 are simple beta groups that exhibited little
change over the past 24 hours. Region 663, in a beta-gamma
configuration, is more complex, but has decayed slightly this
period. Remaining active regions were stable or in decay.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a small chance for a C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The IMF Bz was
predominantly southward; however, solar wind speed has declined to
near 400 km/s . The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active periods
are possible at high latitudes.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Aug to 26 Aug
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Aug 110 Predicted 24 Aug-26 Aug 110/105/095 90 Day Mean 23 Aug 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Aug 008/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Aug 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Aug-26 Aug 010/015-008/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Aug to 26 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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