Viewing archive of Sunday, 22 August 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Aug 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 235 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Aug 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity continues to be very low. Minor B-class activity was observed in Region 661 (N06W47). This region, which still maintains over 400 millionths of white light area coverage, is in a slow decay phase. With the exception of Region 665 (N04W15), which was numbered today, all active regions were stable or in decay.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. There is a small chance of a C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active with isolated minor storm periods. The disturbed periods are due to a slightly elevated solar wind speed and a predominantly southward IMF Bz. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active with isolated minor storm periods at high latitudes.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Aug to 25 Aug
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Aug 115
  Predicted   23 Aug-25 Aug  115/115/110
  90 Day Mean        22 Aug 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Aug  014/017
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Aug  015/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Aug-25 Aug  012/015-012/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Aug to 25 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%20%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%35%25%
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%

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