Viewing archive of Friday, 20 August 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Aug 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 233 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Aug 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 656 (S13,L=87),
which is behind the west limb, produced a C2.1 at 19/2105 UTC and a
C2.8 flare at 20/0107 UTC. Both events were long duration flares.
Regions 661 (N08W19), 662 (N13E00) and 663 (N10E67) all exhibited
slight growth in size over the period, with stable magnetic
complexity. New spots have appeared on the east limb next to Region
663. Further observations will determine if these spots are part of
Region 663. New Region 664 (S11E40) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 661 may produce C- and isolated M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active from the effects of a
small geoeffective coronal hole.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled, with possible active conditions
on 22 August from the effects of a coronal hole moving into
geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Aug to 23 Aug
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Aug 121 Predicted 21 Aug-23 Aug 120/115/110 90 Day Mean 20 Aug 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Aug 003/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Aug 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Aug-23 Aug 008/008-008/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Aug to 23 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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