Viewing archive of Thursday, 19 August 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Aug 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 232 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Aug 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. Region 656
(S13,L=87) continues to produce M-class flares from the west limb:
an M3.0 at 19/0701 UTC and an M2.1 at 1351 UTC. Region 661 (N09W06)
is stable in size and magnetic conplexity, maintaining its
beta-gamma configuration. A CME was observed on LASCO imagery from
the X1.8 flare reported yesterday, although the CME was not directed
toward Earth. New Region 663 (N08E75) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Lingering flare activity from Region 656 is still
possible for another day. Region 661 is capable of producing
isolated M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days, with
isolated active conditions possible on 20 August.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Aug to 22 Aug
| Class M | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Aug 121 Predicted 20 Aug-22 Aug 115/110/105 90 Day Mean 19 Aug 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Aug 010/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Aug 008/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Aug-22 Aug 008/015-005/012-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Aug to 22 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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