Viewing archive of Monday, 16 August 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Aug 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 229 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Aug 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity decreased to moderate levels today. Region 656 (S13W61) was limited to a single M-class flare during the period, an M1/Sf that occurred at 16/0347Z. A long duration C9/Sf event occurred at 16/1338Z which produced a very faint CME that does not appear to be Earth-directed. Region 656 underwent little change in spot area. The region remains a beta-gamma-delta magnetic complex although the delta structure in the intermediate spot cluster has weakened over the period. Region 661 (N07E34) was quiescent throughout the period but is worthy of note due to the small delta magnetic structure that has developed in the southern most part of the dominant trailing spot. A partial halo CME was observed mostly on the northwest solar limb which appears to be a backsided event. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels through 17 and 18 August. Activity should begin to diminish on 19 August as Region 656 transits the western solar limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. A slight chance for isolated active conditions throughout the period exists due to the weak CME activity seen during the past several days.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Aug to 19 Aug
Class M75%75%50%
Class X20%20%05%
Proton10%10%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Aug 134
  Predicted   17 Aug-19 Aug  130/125/115
  90 Day Mean        16 Aug 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Aug  003/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Aug  003/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Aug-19 Aug  008/008-008/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Aug to 19 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%10%
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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