Viewing archive of Sunday, 15 August 2004

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Aug 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 228 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Aug 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity was at high levels today. Region 656 (S13W48) produced multiple M-class flares again today, the largest was an M9/1n that occurred at 15/1241Z that had an associated faint CME seen on SOHO/LASCO imagery emanating from the southwest solar quadrant. This CME does not appear to be Earth-directed. Sun spot area showed a slight increase from yesterday and the beta-gamma-delta magnetic structure has undergone little change over the past 24 hours. The remainder of the active regions were quiescent throughout the period. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. Region 656 remains capable of producing isolated major flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active conditions may occur throughout the period due to the potential of weak flanking blows from the CME activity observed over the past couple days.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Aug to 18 Aug
Class M80%80%80%
Class X25%25%25%
Proton15%15%15%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Aug 139
  Predicted   16 Aug-18 Aug  135/135/130
  90 Day Mean        15 Aug 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Aug  006/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Aug  004/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Aug-18 Aug  008/008-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Aug to 18 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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