Viewing archive of Saturday, 14 August 2004

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Aug 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 227 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Aug 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity remained at high levels today. Region 656 (S13W35) produced multiple M-class flares today. There were two major flares reported during the period, an M7/2n event at 14/0544Z and an M5/2n occurring at 14/1343Z. SOHO/LASCO imagery depicts several CMEs that all appear to have a solar westward component. This region continues to exhibit a beta-gamma-delta magnetic structure with some decay in the sunspot area seen over the period. The remaining active regions were quiescent throughout the period. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. Region 656 remains capable of producing further major flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. A weak shock passed the ACE spacecraft at approximately 13/2200Z that is presumed to be from the faint halo CME that was observed late on 10 August. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period. Isolated active conditions are possible late on 16 and through 17 August due to glancing blows from the CME activity seen today.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Aug to 17 Aug
Class M75%75%75%
Class X20%20%20%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Aug 149
  Predicted   15 Aug-17 Aug  150/145/145
  90 Day Mean        14 Aug 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Aug  005/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Aug  005/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Aug-17 Aug  010/010-012/015-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Aug to 17 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm05%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm05%15%10%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%

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