Viewing archive of Saturday, 14 August 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Aug 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 227 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Aug 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity remained at high levels today. Region
656 (S13W35) produced multiple M-class flares today. There were two
major flares reported during the period, an M7/2n event at 14/0544Z
and an M5/2n occurring at 14/1343Z. SOHO/LASCO imagery depicts
several CMEs that all appear to have a solar westward component.
This region continues to exhibit a beta-gamma-delta magnetic
structure with some decay in the sunspot area seen over the period.
The remaining active regions were quiescent throughout the period.
No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels. Region 656 remains capable of producing
further major flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. A weak shock
passed the ACE spacecraft at approximately 13/2200Z that is presumed
to be from the faint halo CME that was observed late on 10 August.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels throughout
the period. Isolated active conditions are possible late on 16 and
through 17 August due to glancing blows from the CME activity seen
today.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Aug to 17 Aug
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Aug 149 Predicted 15 Aug-17 Aug 150/145/145 90 Day Mean 14 Aug 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Aug 005/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Aug 005/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Aug-17 Aug 010/010-012/015-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Aug to 17 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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