Viewing archive of Friday, 13 August 2004

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Aug 13 2210 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 226 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Aug 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity increased to high levels today. Region 656 (S13W22) produced an X1/1n major flare at 13/1812Z with an associated 180 sfu Tenflare. Imagery from the LASCO instrument remains insufficient at the time of this writing for determination of CME activity. Region 656 also produced an M1/Sf flare that occurred at 13/0729 and an M1/1f event that occurred at 13/1209Z, neither of these flares had any significant CME activity observed on LASCO imagery. Region 656 continues to exhibit a beta-gamma-delta magnetic classification and did show a very slight growth in sunspot area during the period. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. Region 656 remains very capable of producing further isolated major flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 14 August with the anticipated arrival of a CME from the activity that was observed late on 10 August. Isolated active periods may be possible on day two (15 August) at higher latitudes due to lingering effects from the expected shock. A return to predominantly quiet conditions is expected for day three in lieu of further imagery from SOHO/LASCO.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Aug to 16 Aug
Class M 75%75%75%
Class X 20%20%20%
Proton15%15%15%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Aug 149
  Predicted    14 Aug-16 Aug  155/155/150
  90 Day Mean        13 Aug 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Aug  006/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Aug  006/010
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 14 Aug-16 Aug  012/015-010/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Aug to 16 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%20%
Minor storm 10%05%05%
Major-severe storm 05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%25%20%
Minor storm 20%10%05%
Major-severe storm 10%05%01%

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