Viewing archive of Tuesday, 10 August 2004

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Aug 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 223 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Aug 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Today's activity consisted of occasional C-class flares from Region 656 (S12E18). Although the region is still growing the rate of growth has decreased significantly and the rate of flare activity has also decreased. The region continues to have a delta magnetic class but shearing in the region appears to have decreased slightly. New Region 659 (N18E59) was assigned today and is a small, stable H-type group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be mostly low, but there is a fair chance for an isolated M-class flare from Region 656. There may be an increase in background and activity levels on 12 August with the return of old Region 652 (N08, L=348) which produced numerous M-class events on its previous disk transit.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels with a minor storm interval at some locations from 1500-1800 UTC. Solar wind observations show an increase of velocity and temperature, and a decrease of density, consistent with the onset of a high-speed coronal hole solar wind stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled with occasional active periods for the next three days (11-13 August).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Aug to 13 Aug
Class M40%40%40%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Aug 121
  Predicted   11 Aug-13 Aug  125/130/135
  90 Day Mean        10 Aug 106
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Aug  012/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Aug  010/013
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Aug-13 Aug  010/012-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Aug to 13 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm25%25%25%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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