Viewing archive of Monday, 9 August 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Aug 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 222 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Aug 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity was low. Today's activity consisted of
numerous C-class flares from Region 656 (S12E31). This region grew
rapidly during the past 24 hours and has formed into a compact
configuration that includes a magnetic delta configuration and also
is exhibiting magnetic shear along part of the inversion line. The
other two numbered regions on the disk were quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Additional C-class flares are expected from Region 656.
There is a good chance for an isolated M-class flare from this
region over the next three days. There is a slight chance for a
major flare from this region as well, especially if the current
growth trend continues.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled during the past
24 hours, with the exception of an active period from 0600-0900 UTC.
The enhanced activity corresponded to a solar sector boundary
crossing observed in the solar wind data.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly unsettled for the next three days
(10-12 August), with a slight chance for isolated active periods.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Aug to 12 Aug
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Aug 114 Predicted 10 Aug-12 Aug 115/120/125 90 Day Mean 09 Aug 106
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Aug 002/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Aug 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Aug-12 Aug 010/010-010/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Aug to 12 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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