Viewing archive of Sunday, 8 August 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Aug 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 221 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Aug 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 656 (S12E45) has
produced several events through the last 24 hours including a long
duration B5 flare at 08/1433 UT and a C2/Sf flare at 08/1724 UTC.
The region has shown continued growth in both white light coverage
and sunspot count and has developed a magnetic beta-gamma magnetic
configuration. A full halo CME was observed today in the SOHO/LASCO
imagery. The event was first seen in C2 at 08/0854 UTC. An
analysis of the data indicate that this was a backside event and not
directed toward Earth.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 656 is capable of producing an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The solar wind speeds
that started out the last 24 hour period at above 480 km/s has
gradually declined to around 400 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active conditions.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Aug to 11 Aug
| Class M | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Aug 105 Predicted 09 Aug-11 Aug 105/110/110 90 Day Mean 08 Aug 106
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Aug 011/020 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Aug 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Aug-11 Aug 010/015-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Aug to 11 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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