Viewing archive of Saturday, 24 July 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jul 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 206 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jul 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity has been moderate. Region 652 (N08W21) produced three M-class flares, the largest an M2.5/Sf flare at 24/1850 UTC. Three CMEs were observed on LASCO imagery at about 0230 UTC, although none were Earthward directed. A CME directed to the east was most likely associated with activity beyond the east limb, and a CME projected to the northwest was most likely associated with an erupting filament close to the west limb at N30. A third CME erupting towards the southwest may have been associated with C-class flare that occurred in Region 652. Region 652 continues to decay steadily in size to 1610 millionths in white light, and maintains its beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Region 652 may produce major flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. A minor shock was observed at ACE at approximately 0600 UTC, and minor storming occurred shortly afterwards.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 25 July. CME activity observed yesterday (23 July) may produce active and isolated minor storm conditions on 26 July.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Jul to 27 Jul
Class M70%70%70%
Class X20%20%20%
Proton15%15%15%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Jul 147
  Predicted   25 Jul-27 Jul  150/130/130
  90 Day Mean        24 Jul 098
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jul  021/047
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Jul  020/025
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Jul-27 Jul  015/015-022/025-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jul to 27 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%40%30%
Minor storm10%20%10%
Major-severe storm05%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%45%30%
Minor storm25%30%25%
Major-severe storm10%15%10%

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