Viewing archive of Wednesday, 14 July 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jul 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 196 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jul 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity was high. Region 646 (N12W72) produced an impulsive M6/1n flare at 0523 UTC. The event was accompanied by weak radio bursts, and there was no associated CME visible in the LASCO coronagraph data. The group appears to be decaying and was less active today than it was yesterday. Region 649 (S10E53) continues to be the largest group on the disk and managed to produce one M-flare, an M1/Sf at 1816 UTC. The size of the group is about the same as yesterday, but the region does appear to have a small magnetic delta configuration in the dominant trailer spots, and this appears to be the primary location for occasional flare activity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate, with regions 646 and 649 the most likely sources. There continues to be a slight chance for an additional, major flare event from Region 646.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed showed a steady decline during the past 24 hours with values around 450 km/s at forecast issue time.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled for the next 24 hours (15 July). Generally unsettled with some active periods at high latitudes is expected for the 2nd day (16 July). A return to predominantly unsettled is expected for the 3rd day (17 July).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jul to 17 Jul
Class M60%60%60%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton15%15%15%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Jul 138
  Predicted   15 Jul-17 Jul  140/140/135
  90 Day Mean        14 Jul 098
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jul  011/016
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Jul  010/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Jul-17 Jul  010/012-012/020-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jul to 17 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%35%30%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%35%30%
Minor storm15%20%15%
Major-severe storm05%10%05%

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