Viewing archive of Tuesday, 13 July 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jul 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 195 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jul 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity was high. Region 646 (N13W60) emerged rapidly during the past 24 hours and produced three major flares: an M6 at 0017 UTC, an M5/1n at 0848 UTC, and an M6/1b at 1932 UTC. CME's were observed in association with the first and second major flares which were technically classified as halo events, although the majority of the mass erupted off the northwest limb. Region 646 grew from 70 to 220 millionths and has some magnetic complexity along a northeast-to-southwest inversion line. Region 649 (S10E64) is the largest group on the disk with an area of 350 millionths. The region produced numerous C-class events as well as two M-class flares: an M2 at 1208 UTC and an M1/Sf at 1838 UTC.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be mostly moderate, with Region 646 and 649 the most likely sources for activity. There is a fair chance for continued major flare activity, particularly out of Region 646.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels during the past 24 hours. Solar wind data countinue to show that the earth is under the influence of a high-speed stream driven by a coronal hole (with typical speeds today between 500 to 600 km/s). There was an enhancement of greater than 10 MeV protons, which began around 0100 UTC and reached maximum values of about 1 PFU.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled for the next three days. Unsettled with some active periods at high latitudes is expected on the third day as a possible response to a glancing blow from one or the other of today's CMEs.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Jul to 16 Jul
Class M75%75%75%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton15%15%15%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Jul 127
  Predicted   14 Jul-16 Jul  135/140/140
  90 Day Mean        13 Jul 098
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jul  012/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Jul  012/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 Jul-16 Jul  010/012-010/012-012/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jul to 16 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%35%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%35%40%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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