Viewing archive of Monday, 12 July 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jul 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 194 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jul 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. An M1 x-ray flare occurred
at 12/0808 UTC from the east limb near SE08. New Region 649 (S10E76)
rotated into view near the site of the M-flare as a small C-type
sunspot group. More sunspots are likely to rotate into view within
the next 24 hours. New Region 648 (N14W08) emerged on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Additional C-class flares are expected and another
M-class flare is possible. The source of this activity is expected
to be the active region area at the southeast limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active. The high-speed
stream conditions that were apparent in the ACE solar wind data
yesterday appear to be easing.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods are
possible.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Jul to 15 Jul
| Class M | 20% | 30% | 40% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Jul 125 Predicted 13 Jul-15 Jul 130/135/140 90 Day Mean 12 Jul 098
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jul 013/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jul 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jul-15 Jul 010/012-008/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jul to 15 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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