Viewing archive of Monday, 28 June 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jun 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 180 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jun 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 635 (S10, L=052)
produced several low C-class flares as it rotated around the west
limb. A CME, visible on the west limb at 28/0124Z, was likely
associated with one of several flares from this region. The
remaining active regions showed no significant changes.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to very low. An isolated C-class flare is possible.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active
levels. Occasional periods of southward Bz resulted in the active
conditions. Solar wind measurements indicated a transition into a
weak coronal hole high speed stream late in the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated
active periods. A weak high speed stream is expected to produce
minor disturbed periods.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Jun to 01 Jul
| Class M | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Jun 089 Predicted 29 Jun-01 Jul 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 28 Jun 100
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jun 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jun 010/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jun-01 Jul 010/012-010/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jun to 01 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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