Viewing archive of Sunday, 27 June 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jun 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 179 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jun 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Several C-class flares
occurred during the period. Region 637 (N08W16) produced a C1.0/Sf
at 27/0358 UTC. Region 635 (S10W90) produced a C2.3 at 27/1557 UTC.
New Region 639 (N11E73) produced a C1.6 flare at 27/1931 UTC. Two
new regions were numbered today: Region 639 (N11E73) and Region 640
(S09E68).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Regions 635, 637, and 639 may produce C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active. Solar wind speed
observed at ACE remains below 400 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled, with active conditions possible
28-29 June from the effects of high speed solar wind from a
geoeffective coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Jun to 30 Jun
| Class M | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Jun 097 Predicted 28 Jun-30 Jun 090/090/090 90 Day Mean 27 Jun 101
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jun 008/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jun 005/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jun-30 Jun 010/012-012/012-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jun to 30 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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