Viewing archive of Saturday, 26 June 2004

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jun 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 178 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jun 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Region 635 (S11W80) produced a C1.3 flare at 26/0424 UTC and a C8.6 flare at 26/0718 UTC. The region conitnues a steady decay in size and magnetic complexity. New Region 638 (N07E22) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low on 27 June, and decrease to very low levels on 28 June as Region 635 passes behind the west limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels. Solar wind speed has increased to 400 km/s, indicating possible effects of a coronal hole high speed solar wind stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled, with periods of active conditions possible for the next three days as a coronal hole high speed solar wind stream moves into geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Jun to 29 Jun
Class M35%15%05%
Class X05%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 Jun 099
  Predicted   27 Jun-29 Jun  095/090/090
  90 Day Mean        26 Jun 101
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jun  003/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 Jun  005/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 27 Jun-29 Jun  008/015-010/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jun to 29 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%40%40%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%40%40%
Minor storm25%25%25%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%

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