Viewing archive of Friday, 25 June 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jun 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 177 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jun 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 635 (S11W67)
produced a C2.5 flare at 25/1132 UTC. The region maintained a
beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration while exhibiting gradual
decay. Region 634 (N12W88) continues to decay as well. No new
regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 635 may produce C-class and isolated M-class flares until it
passes behind the west limb on 27 June.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet. A minor transient in the solar
wind was observed at ACE at approximately 1200 UTC, although with no
notable effect to the geomagnetic field.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled, with possible active conditions
on days two and three (27-28 June) as a coronal hole high speed
solar wind stream moves into geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Jun to 28 Jun
| Class M | 40% | 35% | 10% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Jun 103 Predicted 26 Jun-28 Jun 095/095/090 90 Day Mean 25 Jun 101
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jun 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jun 003/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jun-28 Jun 005/010-008/015-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jun to 28 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
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