Viewing archive of Wednesday, 23 June 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jun 23 2210 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 175 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jun 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels today. Region 635
(S12W40) produced several C-class flares today, the largest was a
C2/Sf that occurred at 23/0605Z. This region appears to have
underwent little change during the period and remains a
beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Region 634 (N12W59) has
continued to decay and has lost penumbral sunspot coverage in the
trailing portion of the region. The delta structure remains intact
in the dominant lead spot. There were no new regions numbered
today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 635 continues to exhibit the
potential to produce an M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through 24 June. Active
conditions are expected on 25 and 26 June due to a recurrent coronal
hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Jun to 26 Jun
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Jun 113 Predicted 24 Jun-26 Jun 110/105/100 90 Day Mean 23 Jun 102
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jun 001/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jun 002/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jun-26 Jun 003/010-008/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jun to 26 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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