Viewing archive of Tuesday, 22 June 2004

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jun 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 174 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jun 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity decreased to very low levels today. Region 635 (S12W27) continued on a decaying trend today while maintaining a delta structure in the trailing spot cluster. Multiple B-class flares were produced from this region throughout the period. Region 634 (N12W44) underwent significant decay in sunspot area during the period although it continues to retain a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 635 remains capable of producing an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Jun to 25 Jun
Class M50%50%50%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Jun 117
  Predicted   23 Jun-25 Jun  115/110/110
  90 Day Mean        22 Jun 102
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jun  003/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Jun  003/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Jun-25 Jun  003/007-004/010-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jun to 25 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm01%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%20%
Minor storm01%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%

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