Viewing archive of Monday, 21 June 2004

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jun 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 173 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jun 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels today. Region 635 (S12W14) produced the largest flare of the period, a C2/Sf flare at 21/1716Z. There was a slight decay seen in the sunspot area today. The delta magnetic structure in the trailing portion of Region 635 remains intact. Region 634 (N12W31) also underwent slight decay in sunspot coverage today although the region retains a beta-gamma-delta magnetic structure. Region 637 (N08E63) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Regions 635 remains capable of producing M-class flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Jun to 24 Jun
Class M50%50%50%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 Jun 116
  Predicted   22 Jun-24 Jun  115/110/110
  90 Day Mean        21 Jun 102
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jun  003/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 Jun  004/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 22 Jun-24 Jun  004/008-004/008-004/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jun to 24 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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