Viewing archive of Monday, 21 June 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jun 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 173 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jun 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels today. Region 635
(S12W14) produced the largest flare of the period, a C2/Sf flare at
21/1716Z. There was a slight decay seen in the sunspot area today.
The delta magnetic structure in the trailing portion of Region 635
remains intact. Region 634 (N12W31) also underwent slight decay in
sunspot coverage today although the region retains a
beta-gamma-delta magnetic structure. Region 637 (N08E63) was
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Regions 635 remains capable of producing
M-class flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Jun to 24 Jun
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Jun 116 Predicted 22 Jun-24 Jun 115/110/110 90 Day Mean 21 Jun 102
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jun 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jun 004/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jun-24 Jun 004/008-004/008-004/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jun to 24 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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