Viewing archive of Friday, 18 June 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jun 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 170 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jun 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity has been low. There were two C-class
flares during the past 24 hours, a C1 at 2234 UTC from spotless
plage near S08E55 and a C1 at 1626 UTC from Region 635 (S12E25).
Emerging flux was observed in the trailer portion of 635 and this
has led to the formation of a delta spot. Region 634 (N12E07) was
mostly unchanged and was relatively stable during the past 24 hours.
A small, 10 degree filament near S15E09 disappeared, but there was
no evidence for a coronal mass ejection in the SOHO/LASCO imagery.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low, but there is a fair chance for an isolated M-class event
sometime during the next three days given the current growth trend
and increased complexity in Region 635.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24
hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Jun to 21 Jun
| Class M | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Jun 108 Predicted 19 Jun-21 Jun 110/110/105 90 Day Mean 18 Jun 102
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jun 007/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jun 008/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jun-21 Jun 010/012-010/010-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jun to 21 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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