Viewing archive of Wednesday, 26 May 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 May 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 147 Issued at 2200Z on 26 May 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity decreased to very low levels today.
Region 618 (S10W13) was limited to the production of several B-class
flares today. This region underwent decay during the period however
it still maintains a complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic structure.
Region 619 (S09E76) enhanced the x-ray flux late in the period as
surges and plague fluctuations were evident in H-alpha from near
region center. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Region 618 has the potential to produce an isolated
M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. NOTE: The ACE
spacecraft orbit will bring ACE nearly in line with the Sun from
about May 30 to June 2, 2004. During that time solar radio noise is
expected to interfere with spacecraft telemetry resulting in the
loss of solar wind plasma, magnetic field, and particle data.
III. Event Probabilities 27 May to 29 May
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 May 103 Predicted 27 May-29 May 100/105/105 90 Day Mean 26 May 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 May 005/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 May 003/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 May-29 May 006/008-006/010-004/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 May to 29 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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