Viewing archive of Sunday, 23 May 2004

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 May 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 144 Issued at 2200Z on 23 May 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 618 (S10E26) produced four low-level C-class events during the past 24 hours. The group continues to grow and is maintaining magnetic complexity with a delta configuration in the leader spots. New regions 619 (S09W37) and 620 (S15E34) emerged on the disk today as small sunspot groups.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. There is a fair chance for an M-class event from Region 618, given the continuing growth trend and the magnetic complexity of the group.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled during the past 24 hours. The high speed solar wind stream continues to persist (similar to the last 3-4 days) with speeds typically ranging from 450 to 500 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (24-26 May). The currently enhanced solar wind velocity is expected to decline to nominal levels over the next 24 hours. NOTE: The ACE spacecraft orbit will bring ACE nearly in line with the Sun from about May 30 to June 2, 2004. During that time solar radio noise is expected to interfere with spacecraft telemetry resulting in the loss of solar wind plasma, magnetic field, and particle data.
III. Event Probabilities 24 May to 26 May
Class M 50%50%50%
Class X 10%10%10%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 May 104
  Predicted    24 May-26 May  105/105/100
  90 Day Mean        23 May 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 May  007/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 May  010/010
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 24 May-26 May  005/008-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 May to 26 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm 10%10%10%
Major-severe storm 05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm 10%10%10%
Major-severe storm 05%05%05%

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