Viewing archive of Saturday, 15 May 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 May 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 136 Issued at 2200Z on 15 May 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 609 (S03W05)
produced the only C-class event in the last 24 hours. This region
has almost doubled in white light coverage since yesterday and is
now an area of around 500 millionths. The daily consensus for this
developing D-type group has it as a magnetic beta-gamma
configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 609 has the potential of producing an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled conditions.
III. Event Probabilities 16 May to 18 May
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 May 115 Predicted 16 May-18 May 120/125/120 90 Day Mean 15 May 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 May 004/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 May 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 May-18 May 008/012-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 May to 18 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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