Viewing archive of Friday, 14 May 2004

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 May 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 135 Issued at 2200Z on 14 May 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity has been very low. Region 609 (S04E10) produced several low B-class flares during the past 24 hours. The region continues to show slight growth in white light area and sunspot count.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Region 609 has the potential to produce C-class events with a chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled conditions.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods.
III. Event Probabilities 15 May to 17 May
Class M20%20%20%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 May 110
  Predicted   15 May-17 May  112/115/115
  90 Day Mean        14 May 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 May  017/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 May  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 May-17 May  010/015-008/012-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 May to 17 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%15%
Minor storm15%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%30%20%
Minor storm20%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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